Prediction Markets

Polymarket, Kalshi, and on-chain odds โ€” where the crowd prices what's actually going to happen. Analysis for investors who want signal, not noise.

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Prediction Markets
Prediction markets see $197M midterms volume
Kalshi and Polymarket report nearly $200M wagered on US midterms with Dems favored for Congress control. Reflects growing use of markets for election
August 4, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Polymarket/Kalshi Election Odds Steady Pre-Recess
No major shifts reported in prediction market odds for key US events as crypto bill drama unfolds; focus remains on DC legislative outcomes impacting
August 3, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Kalshi Faces NY State Lawsuit on Gambling
New York sues Kalshi over prediction markets as illegal gambling, challenging federal vs state regulatory primacy. Case could set precedent for electi
July 31, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets quiet on elections amid macro focus
Polymarket/Kalshi show stable election odds with limited shifts; traders eye Fed and crypto flows. Low activity today reflects focus on rates and BTC
July 10, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Polymarket: ETH June 28 Close Favors $1,500-$1,600 Band
Polymarket traders are pricing an 84% probability that ETH closes June 28 in the $1,500โ€“$1,600 band โ€” here is what the on-chain positioning and options market s...
June 28, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets Face State Regulatory Scrutiny
State regulators are targeting Polymarket and Kalshi as prediction markets expand beyond federal oversight โ€” what it means for the $21B industry and traders on ...
June 27, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Polymarket-Kalshi arb on Fed rate hike in 2026 at 16ยข
Sharp 16ยข spread emerges on 2026 Fed hike probabilities between platforms. Traders exploit prediction market inefficiencies amid ongoing rate uncertai
June 22, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Polymarket: Claude Opus Leads Best AI Model on June 20 at 94%
Prediction market heavily favors claude-opus-4-6-thinking as top model today with 94% odds over fable-5. Reflects rapid AI capability shifts and inves
June 20, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets Tighten Bitcoin Range Outlook
Polymarket/Kalshi-style markets price BTC into narrow band for week-end; rate hike odds shift sharply higher post-Fed. Reflects macro-driven caution i
June 19, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Polymarket/Kalshi Election Odds Steady Pre-Recess
No major shifts reported in prediction market odds for key US events as crypto bill drama unfolds; focus remains on DC legislative outcomes impacting
August 13, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Kalshi Faces NY State Lawsuit on Gambling
New York sues Kalshi over prediction markets as illegal gambling, challenging federal vs state regulatory primacy. Case could set precedent for electi
August 13, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets quiet on elections amid macro focus
Polymarket/Kalshi show stable election odds with limited shifts; traders eye Fed and crypto flows. Low activity today reflects focus on rates and BTC
August 13, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Polymarket: ETH June 28 Close Favors $1,500-$1,600 Band
Polymarket traders are pricing an 84% probability that ETH closes June 28 in the $1,500โ€“$1,600 band โ€” here is what the on-chain positioning and options market say about the thesis.
August 13, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets Face State Regulatory Scrutiny
State regulators are targeting Polymarket and Kalshi as prediction markets expand beyond federal oversight โ€” what it means for the $21B industry and traders on these platforms.
August 13, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Polymarket-Kalshi arb on Fed rate hike in 2026 at 16ยข
Sharp 16ยข spread emerges on 2026 Fed hike probabilities between platforms. Traders exploit prediction market inefficiencies amid ongoing rate uncertai
August 13, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Polymarket: Claude Opus Leads Best AI Model on June 20 at 94%
Prediction market heavily favors claude-opus-4-6-thinking as top model today with 94% odds over fable-5. Reflects rapid AI capability shifts and inves
August 13, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets Tighten Bitcoin Range Outlook
Polymarket/Kalshi-style markets price BTC into narrow band for week-end; rate hike odds shift sharply higher post-Fed. Reflects macro-driven caution i
August 13, 20265 min read

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