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Prediction Markets

Polymarket, Kalshi, and on-chain odds — where the crowd prices what's actually going to happen. Analysis for investors who want signal, not noise.

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Prediction Markets
2026 Midterms: Democrats Favored in Prediction Markets
Polymarket and Kalshi show Democrats favored for House control and ~62-64% for Senate or full sweep in 2026 midterms, with specific races like TX Senate…
October 8, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Polymarket: Fed Oct Hike Odds at 64%
Traders price 64% chance of Fed rate hike Oct 27-28 after Governor Barr comments on inflation. Reflects tightening signals shifting macro expectations.
September 28, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets See Record Volumes on Fed/AI
Kalshi and Polymarket traded heavily on recent Fed decision and AI-related contracts. Growing liquidity underscores integration of events, crypto rails…
September 18, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets Active on Fed Rate Move
Polymarket and Kalshi see heavy volume on Sept 2026 FOMC outcomes with high odds on 25bp hike; other markets include 2028 nominations and OpenAI IPO by…
September 14, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Polymarket Launches New Markets on AI, Politics
Polymarket added markets on OpenAI vs Anthropic Millennium Prize, hottest month record, and Trump-Iran tensions. Solana prediction market platform also…
September 10, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Polymarket-Kalshi variance widens on election odds
Prediction markets show divergence with Polymarket flipping blue while Kalshi stays near 50/50 on key races. Highlights high uncertainty in turnout and…
August 22, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Kalshi: 74% odds Fed holds rates in Sep
Kalshi markets price 74% chance Fed maintains rates at September FOMC meeting. Matters for macro investors pricing rate paths, bonds, and equity…
August 17, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets see $197M midterms volume
Kalshi and Polymarket report nearly $200M wagered on US midterms with Dems favored for Congress control. Reflects growing use of markets for election…
August 4, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Polymarket/Kalshi Election Odds Steady Pre-Recess
No major shifts reported in prediction market odds for key US events as crypto bill drama unfolds; focus remains on DC legislative outcomes impacting…
August 3, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Kalshi Faces NY State Lawsuit on Gambling
New York sues Kalshi over prediction markets as illegal gambling, challenging federal vs state regulatory primacy. Case could set precedent for election…
July 31, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets quiet on elections amid macro focus
Polymarket/Kalshi show stable election odds with limited shifts; traders eye Fed and crypto flows. Low activity today reflects focus on rates and BTC…
July 10, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Polymarket: ETH June 28 Close Favors $1,500-$1,600 Band
Polymarket traders are pricing an 84% probability that ETH closes June 28 in the $1,500–$1,600 band — here is what the on-chain positioning and options market s...
June 28, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets Face State Regulatory Scrutiny
State regulators are targeting Polymarket and Kalshi as prediction markets expand beyond federal oversight — what it means for the $21B industry and traders on ...
June 27, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Polymarket-Kalshi arb on Fed rate hike in 2026 at 16¢
Sharp 16¢ spread emerges on 2026 Fed hike probabilities between platforms. Traders exploit prediction market inefficiencies amid ongoing rate uncertainty.
June 22, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Polymarket: Claude Opus Leads Best AI Model on June 20 at 94%
Prediction market heavily favors claude-opus-4-6-thinking as top model today with 94% odds over fable-5. Reflects rapid AI capability shifts and investor…
June 20, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets Tighten Bitcoin Range Outlook
Polymarket/Kalshi-style markets price BTC into narrow band for week-end; rate hike odds shift sharply higher post-Fed. Reflects macro-driven caution into…
June 19, 20265 min read
Prediction Markets
Polymarket: Fed Oct Hike Odds at 64%
Traders price 64% chance of Fed rate hike Oct 27-28 after Governor Barr comments on inflation. Reflects tightening signals shifting macro expectations.
October 12, 20264 min read
Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets See Record Volumes on Fed/AI
Kalshi and Polymarket traded heavily on recent Fed decision and AI-related contracts. Growing liquidity underscores integration of events, crypto rails…
October 12, 20264 min read
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Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets Active on Fed Rate Move
Polymarket and Kalshi see heavy volume on Sept 2026 FOMC outcomes with high odds on 25bp hike; other markets include 2028 nominations and OpenAI IPO by…
October 12, 20264 min read
Prediction Markets
Polymarket Launches New Markets on AI, Politics
Polymarket added markets on OpenAI vs Anthropic Millennium Prize, hottest month record, and Trump-Iran tensions. Solana prediction market platform also…
October 12, 20264 min read
Prediction Markets
Polymarket-Kalshi variance widens on election odds
Prediction markets show divergence with Polymarket flipping blue while Kalshi stays near 50/50 on key races. Highlights high uncertainty in turnout and…
October 12, 20264 min read
Prediction Markets
Kalshi: 74% odds Fed holds rates in Sep
Kalshi markets price 74% chance Fed maintains rates at September FOMC meeting. Matters for macro investors pricing rate paths, bonds, and equity…
October 12, 20264 min read
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets see $197M midterms volume
Kalshi and Polymarket report nearly $200M wagered on US midterms with Dems favored for Congress control. Reflects growing use of markets for election…
October 12, 20264 min read
Prediction Markets
Polymarket/Kalshi Election Odds Steady Pre-Recess
No major shifts reported in prediction market odds for key US events as crypto bill drama unfolds; focus remains on DC legislative outcomes impacting…
October 12, 20264 min read
Prediction Markets
Kalshi Faces NY State Lawsuit on Gambling
New York sues Kalshi over prediction markets as illegal gambling, challenging federal vs state regulatory primacy. Case could set precedent for election…
October 12, 20264 min read
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets quiet on elections amid macro focus
Polymarket/Kalshi show stable election odds with limited shifts; traders eye Fed and crypto flows. Low activity today reflects focus on rates and BTC…
October 12, 20264 min read
Prediction Markets
Polymarket: ETH June 28 Close Favors $1,500-$1,600 Band
Polymarket traders are pricing an 84% probability that ETH closes June 28 in the $1,500–$1,600 band — here is what the on-chain positioning and options market say about the thesis.
October 12, 20264 min read

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